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Spread of house price forecasts
Link: http://www.dothesums.co.uk/blog
We at dothesums don't really like gambling. But where there is risk, we prefer to have the odds stacked in our favour.
This does not mean we seek to eliminate risk altogether, no investment can do that, but where property is involved, we like to have forecasts where there is an appreciation over a reasonable period.
It follows therefore, that we also seek to identify where prices will stagnate or fall, so that we may avoid those locations.
What the general public does not realise, but we see in our probability analyses and number crunching, is the spread between the best forecasts and the worst.
For example , in the North East of England the difference between the best and the worst five-year forecasts for semi-detached properties, is a massive +68.6%. This is not an unusual spread.
The worst areas have a negative prediction when we have added up all of the numbers. The best locations exceed the long term UK residential property price increase of 6.5% per annum.
But we all knew that roughly, anyway?
The question is, where are the locations which will show growth in value and which will suffer a decline?
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